[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 March 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar: 111/62


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Mar             23 Mar             24 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             115/66
COMMENT: Active region 576 produced a C6 level flare at 0940UT. 
A narrow SW directed CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery around 
15UT. Neither event is likely to be geoeffective. Possibility 
of isolated C- to M-class activity from region 578. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2223 3222
      Darwin              10   2223 3321
      Townsville          12   2233 3-3-
      Learmonth           12   2223 4322
      Culgoora             9   2223 3221
      Canberra            11   2224 3222
      Hobart              11   2224 3222
      Casey(Ant)          14   3443 2122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 MAR : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            10   (Quiet)
      Canberra            37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   3312 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
23 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Mar     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has remained steady at around 400 km/s. 
Bz component of the IMF has shown mild fluctuations of +/- 5 
nT about neutral, with a sustained period of southward bias in 
the mid part of the UT day. A brief period of active geomagnetic 
conditions was observed at mid to high latitudes about this time. 
Generally quiet conditions expected next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected. Mild degradations 
possible at times at high latitudes in association with isolated 
geomagnetic disturbances. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Mar    76

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Mar    75    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
23 Mar    75    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
24 Mar    75    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions observed, and expected 
next three days. Expect localised minor degradations at high 
latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 409 km/sec  Density:    6.7 p/cc  Temp:   125000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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