[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 March 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1F 18/2236UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Mar             21 Mar             22 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60
COMMENT: Multiple B- to C-class flare activity has been observed 
mainly from regions 574 and 578. Possibility of further isolated 
low M-class activity from these regions. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 19 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2211 1122
      Darwin               4   2201 1122
      Townsville           5   3211 1122
      Learmonth            5   3201 1022
      Culgoora             3   2201 1012
      Canberra             4   2201 1122
      Hobart               4   2202 1122
      Casey(Ant)          11   3432 2123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 MAR : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   3333 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Mar    15    Quiet to unsettled, chance isolated active periods 
21 Mar    12    Unsettled 
22 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions have been predominantly quiet, 
with isolated unsettled intervals at high latitudes only. Solar 
wind speed commenced a mild upward trend after 09UT, probably 
under the influence of a small northern hemisphere coronal hole. 
Possibility of isolated unsettled to active periods on days one 
and two. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected. Mild degradations 
possible on days one and two at high latitudes in association 
with anticipated mild geomagnetic disturbance. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Mar    67

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 10% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Mar    55    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Mar    55    Near predicted monthly values 
22 Mar    65    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Evening spread-F observed S Aus/NZ regions. Regional 
MUFs should be mostly near predicted monthly values over the 
next few days. Mildly degraded HF communication conditions may 
be experienced local night hours 20-21 Mar S Aus/NZ regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 375 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    37300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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