[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 March 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 104/53


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Mar             15 Mar             16 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             110/60
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 560 to 480km/sec over 
the UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field fluctuated southward over the UT day. The leader spots 
in solar region 570 continue to decline. The new solar region 
which has rotated around the south-east limb of the sun, has 
been numbered 573. This region has a simple bipolar magnetic 
confiuration at present. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 13 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   3233 4322
      Darwin              13   2233 4322
      Townsville          10   2233 3223
      Learmonth           15   3233 4332
      Culgoora            10   2233 3223
      Canberra            14   3233 4322
      Hobart              14   2233 4332
      Casey(Ant)          17   4433 3233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 MAR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             8   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             23   5543 3423     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Mar     5    Quiet 
16 Mar     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Declining trend in geomagnetic activity expected to 
continue as effects of recent coronal hole wind stream continue 
to subside. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Mar    67

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Mar    50    near predicted monthly values 
15 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 606 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   117000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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