[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 March 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Mar             13 Mar             14 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             100/48
COMMENT: Solar wind speed showed an overall declining trend over 
past 24 hours. This indicates that the Earth is gradually leaving 
the recent coronal hole high speed wind stream. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field was southward 5 to 
10 nT during the second half of the UT day. Solar region 570 is now 
nearing the centre of the solar disk. There is chance for an 
islolated low level M class flare from this region, as some magnetic 
polarity mixing is apparent in the leader spots of this region. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 11 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      23   3334 3454
      Darwin              18   3333 3443
      Townsville          20   3334 3444
      Learmonth           25   4234 4454
      Culgoora            25   2334 3554
      Canberra            23   3334 3454
      Hobart              26   3334 3554
      Casey(Ant)          28   --44 3455
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 MAR : 
      Townsville          27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth           67   (Active)
      Culgoora            97   (Minor storm)
      Canberra           172   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             146   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             45                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        36
           Planetary             40   5664 5334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Mar    15    Active to unsettled 
13 Mar    12    Unsettled 
14 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Declining trend in geomagnetic activity expected over 
next 24 hours as the Earth leaves the coronal hole wind stream. 
Active conditions with chance of minor storm periods may be experienced 
during next 24 hours if southward IMF conditions persist. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Mar      Normal         Fair-Normal    Fair          
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
COMMENT: Improving HF conditions at mid to high latitudes as 
the effects of coronal hole wind stream subside. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Mar    77

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Mar    20    depressed 10 to 15% (southern Aus/NZ region)
12 Mar    50    near predicted monthly values (Northern Aus region)
13 Mar    50    near predicted monthly values 
14 Mar    50    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed after local dawn for
southern Aus/NZ regiuon. Northern Aus region MUFs near
predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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