[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 March 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 9 10:30:20 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:*YELLOW* ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: The only significant flare activity was a long duration
C2 level event at 2010UT. Region of origin was AR 570. This region
appears capable of further C- to M-class activity. An equatorial
coronal hole is now moving into geoeffective location and the
Earth is expected to enter the elevated solar wind stream from
this feature today.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 1122 1101
Darwin 4 1122 1111
Townsville 3 1122 1101
Learmonth 2 2121 0001
Culgoora 2 1121 1002
Canberra 5 1232 1001
Hobart 5 1232 1100
Casey(Ant) 8 3-33 1101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 MAR :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 1122 2312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Mar 20 active
10 Mar 20 active
11 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed today.
A minor disturbance was observed in the solar wind late in the
UT day 07 Mar. This was possibly related to recent flare or filament
activity. The north-south component of the IMF exhibited moderate
polarity fluctuations over the UT day. An extended interval of
southward polarity preceded isolated unsettled periods at high
latitudes only. The Earth is expected to encounter an elevated
solar wind stream today, with several days of disturbed geomagnetic
conditions to follow.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
10 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Variable daytime depressions observed at low latitudes
yesterday. HF conditions should be mostly normal today. A recurrent
high speed coronal hole wind stream is anticipated by day two.
Several days of degraded HF conditions at mid to high latitudes
are expected to follow.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Mar 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Variable depressions during local day,
Near predicted monthly values local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Mar 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
10 Mar 30 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
11 Mar 35 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable minor daytime depressions observed Equatorial/N
Aus region, and may be experienced again today. Otherwise expect
mostly normal HF conditions at first today. The onset of a recurrent
high speed coronal hole wind stream is anticipated later in the
UT day today. Several days of degraded HF conditions at mid to
high latitudes are expected to follow.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B2.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list