[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 June 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 30 09:42:36 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jun 01 Jul 02 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar wind speed further increased over the past 24
hours from 500 to 550km/sec due to a coronal hole wind stream.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) was mostly northward, with southward fluctuations early
in the UT day, becoming more consistently southward late in the
UT day. The Sun has been reasonably flare quiet over the past
24 hours. Solar region 639, just north of the solar equator has
been reported to have shown some growth. However, background
solar xray flux levels have declined below SEC GOES B xray flux
level, to A5 suggesting that flare potential has reduced. Solar
region 640 to the south of the solar equator has been quiet.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 29 Jun : A K
Australian Region 14 3343 2233
Darwin 11 3233 2233
Townsville 15 3343 3233
Learmonth 12 3333 2233
Culgoora 14 3343 2233
Canberra 15 3343 3232
Hobart 13 3333 3233
Casey(Ant) 16 3443 22-3
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 JUN :
Townsville 13 (Quiet)
Learmonth 11 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 41 (Unsettled)
Hobart 49 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 3312 2244
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jun 12 Unsettled, chance for active periods
01 Jul 11 Unsettled
02 Jul 8 Quiet
COMMENT: Isolated active periods due to coronal hole wind stream.
Activity is generally expected to be unsettled over next two
days, with chance for further isolated active periods. recurrence
suggests that the field should then decline to quiet conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradation in HF communications quality
may be experienced today at high latitudes then improving. Mostly
normal HF conditions expected for other latitudes over coming
days. Degradation at high latitudes in association with coronal
hole high speed wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jun 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next few
days with possible isolated slight depressions for southern Aus/NZ
region briefly after local dawn.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+05 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 81500 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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