[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 June 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jun             28 Jun             29 Jun
Activity     Low                Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds have remained slightly elevated over 
the past 24 hours, possibly due to an anticipated weak coronal 
hole solar wind stream. Solar wind speeds are expected to be 
mildly elevated for the next couple of days. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   0111 2212
      Darwin               4   1112 2212
      Townsville           5   1212 2211
      Learmonth            3   0111 2212
      Culgoora             3   0111 2112
      Canberra             3   0111 2211
      Hobart               2   0001 2211
      Casey(Ant)           5   1211 2312
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 JUN : 
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   0001 2231     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active 
28 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active 
29 Jun    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Possible mild increase in geomagnetic activity expected 
for the next couple of days due to an anticipated weak coronal 
hole wind stream, resulting in isolated active periods. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next few 
days with possible isolated slight depressions at times. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Jun    50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  41

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values 
29 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next few 
days with possible isolated slight depressions at times. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: 316 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    22500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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