[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 June 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 25 09:34:39 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 25 JUNE - 27 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jun: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jun             26 Jun             27 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has been low at around 350km/sec over 
the UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was mildly southward for the first six hours of the UT 
day, then becoming neutral. Solar wind speed may increase moderately 
over coming days due to a weak coronal hole wind stream effect. 
Solar region 635 in the solar south-west quadrant produced a 
C2 xray flare at 0630 UT, this flare was associated with a weak 
Type II radio event (shock speed of around 550-580km/sec) observed 
at both Learmonth and Culgoora Solar Observatories. No LASCO 
(space based coronagraph) imagery was available to confirm a 
coronal mass ejection, however, although well positioned, this 
was a minor event and only a weak shock arrival is possible first 
half of the UT day on 27 June. Sunspot groups are mostly 
located in the western solar hemisphere, with the eastern solar 
hemisphere almost spotless, this may mean that solar radio flux 
values will decline as the western spot groups rotate off disk 
over the next 3 to 4 days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1221 1000
      Darwin               4   2221 2001
      Townsville           3   1221 2001
      Learmonth            3   1221 1000
      Culgoora             3   1221 1001
      Canberra             3   1221 1000
      Hobart               3   1221 1000
      Casey(Ant)           2   0221 1000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 JUN : 
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   1011 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jun    12    Unsettled 
26 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active 
27 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Possible mild increase in geomagnetic activity expected 
in coming days due to coronal hole wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be normal for today. Mildy 
degraded HF communications conditions may be experienced around 
late 25-26 June at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jun    52

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values, spread F 
      observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  41

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jun    50    near predicted monthly values 
26 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 
the next few days, with possible minor degradations and depressions 
over Southern Aus/NZ region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jun
Speed: 320 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    34700 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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