[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 June 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 23 09:54:12 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 23 JUNE - 25 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jun: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Only
one C-Class event was observed over the period - a C1.7 at 2150UT
originating from region 635, which also produced a few minor
B-Class events. Region 634 and 635 have not grown in spot-size
or increased in magnetic complexity over the last 2 days. The
solar wind speed gradually fell from a maximum of 370km/s at
the beginning of the day to 320km/s at the time of this report.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) ranged between -3nT and neutral for most of the UT day.
Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next few days,
with Region 635 capable of producing an isolated M-Class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 1110 0001
Darwin 3 1310 0002
Townsville 1 1110 0011
Learmonth 1 1110 0000
Culgoora 0 1100 0002
Canberra 1 1101 0001
Hobart 0 0101 0001
Casey(Ant) 1 1210 0000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 JUN :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1212 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jun 8 Quiet to unsettled
24 Jun 10 Quiet to unsettled
25 Jun 12 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was quiet over the last 24
hours. These conditions are expected to continue for the next
2 days, with an increased chance of isolated unsettled periods
in the next few days as a coronal hole moves into geoeffective
position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be normal for low,mid
and high latitudes over the next 24 hrs. Minor depressions possible
at high latitudes after this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jun 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jun 45 near predicted monthly values
24 Jun 45 near predicted monthly values
25 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over
the next few days, with possible minor degradations and depressions
over Southern Aus/NZ region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jun
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 65200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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