[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 June 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jun             05 Jun             06 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: Analysis of LASCO imagery indicates that the recent 
CME activity has occurred from behind the west limb and is not 
expected to be geoeffective. Solar wind speeds continued to decline 
slowly over the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds are expected 
to continue to decline during 4 June as a coronal hole rotates 
out of a geoeffective position. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 03 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2221 1113
      Darwin               4   2221 1113
      Townsville           4   2221 1112
      Learmonth            4   2221 1113
      Culgoora             4   2221 1112
      Canberra             4   2221 1013
      Hobart               4   2221 1012
      Casey(Ant)           6   2322 1113
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 JUN : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             7   (Quiet)
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)
      Hobart              34   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   3223 3233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
05 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 Jun     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Isolated active periods are still possible for 4 June 
as a coronal hole rotates out of a geoeffective position. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next few 
days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Jun    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  41

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jun    55    Near predicted monthly values 
05 Jun    60    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
06 Jun    60    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next few 
days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun
Speed: 533 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   126000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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