[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 May 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 1 09:17:35 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar wind speed moderately elevated at around 520km/sec
over the UT day. The north south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was near neutral over the UT day. Increased minor
solar flare activity observed over past 24 hours from solar region
618 just south of the solar equator near the west solar limb.
The largest flare produced from this region was a C6.5 xray event
at 0028UT. This was observed as a 1 Faint flare in Culgoora solar
H-alpha imagery. Solar region 618 will rotate off disk probably
in the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 May : A K
Australian Region 9 3223 3122
Darwin 8 3223 2123
Townsville 9 3223 3122
Learmonth 11 3223 3132
Culgoora 8 3223 2122
Canberra 9 3223 3123
Hobart 9 3223 3022
Casey(Ant) 11 3422 2133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 MAY :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 14 (Quiet)
Culgoora 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 46 (Unsettled)
Hobart 102 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 3214 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jun 17 Unsettled to active
02 Jun 18 Unsettled to active
03 Jun 17 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 27 May and
is current for interval 1-3 June. Recurrence suggests that isolated
active periods over are likely over the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
02 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
03 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Slight degradation possible at times for mid to high
latitudes over the next few days as the result of anticipated
slightly elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 May 46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15%
02 Jun 40 10 to 15% below predicted monthly values
03 Jun 40 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs mostly near normal after local dawn this morning.
Mild depressions are possible over the next few days, particularly
after local dawn, southern Aus/NZ region only, as the result
of anticipated slightly elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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