[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 July 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul:  81/22


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jul             04 Jul             05 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over the 
past 24 hours. Background solar X-ray flux remains low at A-levels. 
There is a possibility of isolated C-class activity from region 
640. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 02 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   1221 2322
      Darwin               7   2211 2322
      Townsville           6   2221 2221
      Learmonth            7   1221 2321
      Culgoora             5   1221 2222
      Canberra             7   1221 2321
      Hobart               7   1122 2322
      Casey(Ant)          11   2322 3-32
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 JUL : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            47   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              45   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             13   3333 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
04 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
05 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were predominantly quiet, with 
isolated unsettled periods. Isolated active periods were observed 
at high latitudes only. Solar wind speed continues the slow decline 
of the past few days. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field has remained mostly slightly northward, with brief 
minor southward fluctuations. Conditions should remain mostly 
quiet with isolated unsettled periods for the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed, and expected for 
the next three days. Isolated periods of disturbance possible 
at high latitudes in association with geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Jul    41

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jul    45    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Jul    45    Near predicted monthly values 
05 Jul    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Evening spread-F observed S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions. 
Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next few days, with 
variable overnight enhancements at low to mid latitudes. Possible 
evening spread-F conditions S Aus/NZ regions. Possible isolated 
disturbances at high latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: A3.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 532 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   105000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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