[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 February 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 28 10:10:34 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Feb:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M5.7 26/2230UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb: 122/75


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Feb             29 Feb             01 Mar
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84
COMMENT: Region 564 maintains its magnetic complexity but has 
produced no major flares in the past 24 hours. There is still 
potential for major flare activity over the next two days, after 
which this region will be close to the west solar limb. Some 
brightening and surging has been observed behind the east limb, 
indicating the possible approach of a new active region. A recurrent 
coronal hole in the northern hemisphere is now past solar central 
meridian. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 27 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   2323 2242
      Darwin              12   2323 2243
      Townsville          12   2323 2242
      Learmonth           11   2223 2242
      Culgoora             9   1323 2132
      Canberra            12   2323 2243
      Hobart               9   1323 2132
      Casey(Ant)          17   2444 3132
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 FEB : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   1112 2321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Feb    12    Unsettled 
29 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active 
01 Mar    20    active 
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field exhibited moderate polarity fluctuations throughout the 
UT day. Solar wind speed has gradually increased over the UT 
day to about 400 km/s at the time of report issue. Isolated active 
periods were observed at high latitudes in the first half of 
the UT day. There was an extended period of southward IMF late 
in the day, leading to isolated active periods observed at lower 
latitudes. Expect continuing unsettled conditions today and tomorrow, 
with the chance of isolated active periods. Active conditions 
expected by day three due to a recurrent coronal hole wind stream. 
Solar region 564 has good potential for further major flare activity, 
with a strong possibility of earth-directed solar wind shocks, 
from any CME originating from this region over the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions mostly near normal. Chance of isolated 
periods of disturbance at high latitudes in association with 
geomagnetic activity. Degraded conditions at mid to high latitudes 
expected after day two due to recurrent coronal hole wind stream. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Feb    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Feb    65    Near predicted monthly values 
29 Feb    55    Near predicted monthly values 
01 Mar    55    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 26 February 
and is current for interval 27-29 February (SWFs) . HF conditions 
mostly near normal. Solar active region 564 maintains good potential 
for further major flare activity, with the possibility of short-wave 
fadeout conditions during local daylight hours. HF communicators 
are advised to monitor the IPS website for notification of further 
flare activity over the next few days. There is a possibility 
of slightly degraded HF conditions after day two due to a recurrent 
coronal hole wind stream. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb
Speed: 309 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    16300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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