[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 December 04

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Dec: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Dec             23 Dec             24 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             105/54
COMMENT: A solar region in the south east solar quadrant is showing 
retains its magnetic complexity, but has not as yet produced 
significant flare activity. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Dec: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 21 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   2253 2223
      Darwin              13   1253 2223
      Townsville          13   1253 2222
      Learmonth           14   2253 2223
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra            13   1253 2223
      Hobart              10   1243 2223
      Casey(Ant)          19   3354 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Dec : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   2011 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Dec    22    active 
23 Dec    16    active 
24 Dec    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Disturbed geomagnetic conditions expected during the 
forecast period. 
A weak (13nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 0631UT on 21 Dec. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
23 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Dec    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Dec    25    Near predicted monthly values 
23 Dec    25    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
24 Dec    25    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Dec
Speed: 391 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    48200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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