[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 December 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Dec             18 Dec             19 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has increased from 400 to 550km/sec 
due to the anticpated coronal hole wind stream. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field again fluctuated 
southward (5nT) over the UT day. The Sun has been flare quiet 
over past 24 hours. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2321 3233
      Darwin              12   2321 4333
      Townsville          10   1321 3334
      Learmonth           11   2221 4333
      Culgoora            11   1321 3243
      Canberra            12   1331 3244
      Hobart              12   1331 3243
      Casey(Ant)          13   3--3 3233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Dec : 
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   1121 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Dec    18    active 
18 Dec    14    Unsettled to Active 
19 Dec     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 34 was issued on 16 December 
and is current for interval 17-18 December. Active periods expected 
due to coronal hole wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
18 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions at mid to high laitudes may become mild 
to moderately degraded today due to coronal hole wind stream 
induced geomagnetic activity. Low to mid latitude conditions 
are expected to remain near normal. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Dec    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Dec    20    Depressed 15% after local dawn the recovering. 
18 Dec    20    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
19 Dec    35    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 56 was issued on 16 December 
and is current for interval 17-18 December. Southern Aus/NZ regions 
may experience depressed MUFs after local dawn 17-18 Dec, due 
to anticipated activity induced from a solar coronal hole wind 
stream. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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