[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 December 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 9 10:47:11 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Two low C-class
flares were observed, the largest flare being a C2.5 flare
from region 709(N01W08) at 1959UT. This flare was associated
with a Type II radio sweep (808 km/s). The solar wind speed
gradually decreased from 520 km/s to 440 km/s (approx.)
during the UT day. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed minor fluctuations
on both sides of the normal value throughout the UT day-
staying southwards for relatively longer times. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low to low levels
during the next three days with possibility of isolated
C-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 2222 2223
Darwin 8 2223 2223
Townsville 7 2222 2223
Learmonth 8 2223 2222
Culgoora 7 2222 2223
Canberra 7 2222 2223
Hobart 9 2232 3222
Casey(Ant) 14 4--3 2233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Dec :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 15 2523 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagentic activity is expected to gradually
decline from quiet to unsettled levels to quiet levels
during the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal Fair-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Due to an expected continued decline in the
geomagnetic activity during the next three days, the HF
conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on most
locations during this period. However, minor to mild
degradations in HF conditions are possible at times on
high latitudes during the first two days of this
period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Dec 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day with periods of
depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Dec 30 near predicted monthly values
10 Dec 34 Near predicted monthly values to 5% enhanced.
11 Dec 38 Near predicted monthly values to 5 to 10% enhanced.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
across most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days with
some possibility of isolated depressions in the southern
regions during the first two days of this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 509 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 123000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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