[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 August 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 31 09:59:00 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Aug             01 Sep             02 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34             100/48             110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
region 663 producing two C-Class events, a C2.4 at 0305UT, a 
C1.0 at 1805UT as well as some minor B-Class events. A TypeII 
radio sweep was observed on the Culgoora Spectrograph in conjunction 
with the C2.4 event. LASCO C3 imagery did not indicate any significant 
CME. Solar wind speed continued to decline at the beginning of 
the UT day after receiving the initial shock from the 27/8 eruptive 
prominence, where it remained steady at 380km/s, untill 2000UT 
when it rose sharply to be at 420km/s at the time of this report. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
(Bz) was southward from 0000UT to 2000UT with a maximum of -15nT 
in accordance with the shock arrival. No significant growth was 
observed in any current sunspot sizes and thier magnetic complexity 
remains non-complex. 


Previously X-flare(s) producing region 656 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 1 Sep. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 30 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      19   3223 4535
      Darwin              16   3223 4435
      Townsville          19   3223 4535
      Learmonth           19   3223 4535
      Culgoora            20   3223 4544
      Canberra            20   3223 4545
      Hobart              23   3234 4545
      Casey(Ant)          15   3334 3323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            16   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   2202 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Aug    20    active 
01 Sep    16    active 
02 Sep    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity ranged from Quiet to Active 
over the last 24 hours with isolated periods of Minor Storm levels 
arising from the arrival of a CME from an Eruptive Prominence 
that occured on 27/8. These conditions are expected to continue 
for the next 2 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
01 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
02 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are possible over the next 2 
days as minor gemoagnetic storm conditions from a CME shock arrival 
over most regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Aug    41

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Aug    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
01 Sep    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
02 Sep    45    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressed conditions expected after local dawn for Southern 
AUS/NZ regions. These conditions are expected to continue for 
the next 2 days with the onset of minor geomagnetic storm conditions 
from a CME arrival from 27/8. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 412 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    55300 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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