[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 August 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 29 AUGUST - 31 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Aug:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Aug             30 Aug             31 Aug
Activity     Very low           Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours, 
with only minor B-class events. The solar wind speed ranged between 
380-420km/s. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between +/-5nT over the UT day. 
No significant change was observed in any current sunspot sizes 
or magnetic complexity over the last 24hrs. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 28 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2232 0212
      Darwin               5   2222 0212
      Townsville           6   2232 0113
      Learmonth            6   1232 0221
      Culgoora             7   2232 1123
      Canberra             6   2232 0213
      Hobart               6   2232 0112
      Casey(Ant)          12   3432 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 AUG : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            13   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              8   3112 2323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
30 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
31 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled over 
the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next two 
days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected over most regions 
for the next 2 days, with the chance of isolated degradation 
periods at low latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Aug    43

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Aug    50    near predicted monthly values 
30 Aug    50    near predicted monthly values 
31 Aug    55    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected over most Aus/NZ regions 
for the next 2 days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
       X-ray background: B1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Aug
Speed: 410 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   124000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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