[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 August 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug: 100/48


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Aug             27 Aug             28 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. The only 
notable activity being a C1.3 class event at 0515UT from region 
661, which has almost rotated off disk. The solar wind speed 
rose quickly from 300km/s at 0800UT to 340km/s after which it 
steadily increased to 380km/s at 1400UT, after which it began 
to slowly decline to be 350km/s at the time of this report. The 
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) 
was south at -5nT from 0000UT till 1100UT upon which it remained 
close to nuetral for the rest of the UT day. None of the active 
regions on the disk displayed any growth or sizable decay over 
the last 24hrs. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1111 1211
      Darwin               3   1111 1212
      Townsville           3   1201 1211
      Learmonth            2   0111 1201
      Culgoora             2   0101 1211
      Canberra             2   0100 1210
      Hobart               2   0111 1201
      Casey(Ant)           4   2222 0111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   2111 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
28 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly 
at quiet levels for the next three days with the chance of some 
isolated unsettled periods. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
during the next 3 days with some possibility of minor depressions 
and degradations at high latitudes during this period. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Aug    50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 55% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Aug    55    near predicted monthly values 
27 Aug    55    near predicted monthly values 
28 Aug    55    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
during the next 3 days in most Aus/NZ regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
       X-ray background: B1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 365 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    48100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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