[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 August 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 17 09:57:58 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**RED** MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/SF 0347UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Probable Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 115/66
COMMENT: Solar region 656 still has the capability of producing
significant flare activity although the region appears to be
decreasing in complexity slightly. CME activity associated with
recent solar flare activity from region 656 does not appear to
be Earthward directed, although there is the chance of a glancing
impact.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 0210 1112
Darwin 4 1210 2223
Townsville 3 0200 1222
Learmonth 2 0110 1212
Culgoora 2 0210 1112
Canberra 2 0200 1111
Hobart 1 0100 1111
Casey(Ant) 5 2321 1111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 AUG :
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 7 2112 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Aug 16 Quiet to unsettled with the small chance of active
and isolated minor storm periods.
18 Aug 12 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 15 August and
is current for interval 16-17 August. There is still the chance
that recent CME activity associated with flare activity from
solar region 656 may have a glancing impact on the Earth during
17 August. Active and possible minor storm periods are expected
to follow should the impact occur, otherwise mostly quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Possible mildly degraded HF conditions for 17 August
for mid-high latitudes as the result of anticipated mildly elevated
levels of geomagnetic activity. SWFs are expected to continue
for the next two days, due to active solar region.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Aug 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Aug 45 Enhanced 10% to depressed 5-15%.
18 Aug 55 about 5% above predicted monthly values
19 Aug 65 about 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 15 August
and is current for interval 16-17 August. Possible mildly degraded
HF conditions for 17 August for southern Aus/NZ regions as the
result of anticipated mildly elevated levels of geomagnetic activity.
SWFs are expected to continue for the next two days, due to active
solar region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B7.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 72300 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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