[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 August 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**RED**   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    0730UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.1    1209UT  possible   lower  European
  X1.1    1812UT  probable   all    East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug: 149/104


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Aug             15 Aug             16 Aug
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            155/109            150/105
COMMENT: Solar region 656 has the potential for futher significant 
flare activity. As yet, no significant CME activity has been 
observed in association with the X1-flare on 13 August. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1110 2122
      Darwin               3   2110 1122
      Townsville           3   1110 2112
      Learmonth            4   2111 1122
      Culgoora             3   1100 2122
      Canberra             3   1100 2123
      Hobart               4   1111 2122
      Casey(Ant)           5   2321 1112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 AUG : 
      Townsville           5   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            88   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              48   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   3222 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Aug    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled with the chance of 
                isolated active periods. 
15 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Aug     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds have continued to decline over the 
past 24 hours down to approximately 400km/s. The partial halo 
CME observed on 10 August is not expected to have a significant 
impact on the Earth. Geomagnetic activity may reach active levels 
on 14 August, with conditions mostly unsettled to quiet over 
the next few days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days with the chance of SWFs. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Aug    56

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Aug    55    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
15 Aug    55    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
16 Aug    55    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days with the chance of SWFs. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B6.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug
Speed: 506 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   110000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"