[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 August 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 12 09:57:41 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug: 131/85


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Aug             13 Aug             14 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             145/99             150/105
COMMENT: Minor continuous C class flare activity and one C7.6 
flare at 1135UT was observed over the UT day, associated with 
active region 656. This region continues to increase in magnetic 
complexity and holds fair potential for M class flare activity. 
Old AR652 is due to return on Aug 12th and this region produced 
a number of M class flare events on the previous rotation. A 
weak CME on the south eastern limb was observed by SOHO at 1854UT 
on the 10th and may be geoeffective on the 14th. 


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 652 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 12 Aug. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2223 2222
      Darwin               6   2212 2223
      Townsville           7   2113 2223
      Learmonth            8   2222 2322
      Culgoora             7   1223 2213
      Canberra             7   2123 2222
      Hobart               9   2224 2222
      Casey(Ant)          13   3-33 3232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            45   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14   4122 3433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Aug    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind velocity showed a slow decrease over the 
first half of the UT day from 600km/s to 500km/s and then rose 
to stabilise near 550km/s. The effects of the coronal hole high 
speed solar wind stream are still being observed. IMF Bz was 
mildly southwards for most of the UT day. Active intervals were 
observed at high latitudes in response to extended Bz southwards. 
Expect mostly quiet conditions at low to mid latitudes with isolated 
unsettled periods becoming isolated active intervals at high 
latitudes over the next 1 to 2 days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Elevated critical frequencies were observed across low 
latitudes during the night and a rapid drop pre-dawn. Spread-F 
disturbance was observed at mid-latitudes pre-dawn but overall 
less pronounced than yesterday. Critical frequencies were nominal. 
High latitudes were disturbed by active polar cap conditions 
from extended southward Bz. Expect similar conditions in the 
following three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Aug    56

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Aug    45    near predicted monthly values 
13 Aug    50    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
14 Aug    55    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Low latitudes were mostly free of spread-F conditions 
and exhibited a nighttime enhancement with rapid drop-off pre-dawn. 
Mid latitudes were mostly nominal with less disturbed conditions 
than yesterday. High latitudes showed the usual winter spread 
F conditions with extra disturbance inside the polar cap from 
extended Bz southward. Expect conditions to be similar in the 
next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 493 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   217000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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