[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 August 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Aug             06 Aug             07 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              95/41
COMMENT: ACE solar wind speed remains at around 320-340km/sec. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic ifeld 
was mildly southward (5nT) between 11 and 16 UT. Solar activity 
has been minimal over the past 24 hours. Intermediate spot development 
of 655 has slowed. Returning 642 may not be a spotted region. 
A small coronal hole is currently visible in SOHO EIT 284 imagery 
in the south east solar quadrant. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   0010 1100
      Darwin               3   1111 1111
      Townsville           1   0011 2000
      Learmonth            0   0000 1000
      Culgoora             1   1010 1100
      Canberra             0   0000 1100
      Hobart               1   0000 2000
      Casey(Ant)           2   1010 2100
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   2211 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Aug     5    Quiet 
06 Aug     5    Quiet 
07 Aug     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: 27 day recurrence patterns indicate that quiet conditions 
should persist for the next 3 days. Afterwhich, a minor increase 
in geomagnetic activity to unsettled levels may occur on 08 Aug 
due to a coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Aug    35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
      Some spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Aug    30    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Aug    30    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Aug    30    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: A8.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 376 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    29000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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