[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 April 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 30 09:47:00 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Apr 01 May 02 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Only two B1
flares were recorded. The solar wind speed gradually
decreased from 550 km/s to 450 km/s (approx.) by 1500UT.
It then showed a gradual increase and went up to 500 km/s
by 2200UT and remained nearly steady at this level until
the time of this report. A small coronal hole, that is
about to disappear from the disk, may have caused these
variations in the solar wind stream. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed
minor fluctuations (upto approx. +/- 5nT) around the normal
values- remaining mostly slightly southwards. The solar wind
stream may remain strong for one more day due to a possible
arrival of a CME that was related to a C3.1 flare on 27 April.
Due to unavailability of LASCO images at the time of this
flare, no further comment can be made about this CME. Region
596 has moved behind the limb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 1211 0012
Darwin 2 1211 0013
Townsville 2 1111 1013
Learmonth 2 1211 0012
Culgoora 1 0111 0003
Canberra 1 1101 0002
Hobart 2 1211 0002
Casey(Ant) 6 3-32 0012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 APR :
Townsville 12 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 1021 2342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Apr 14 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible.
01 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 May 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity remained lower than
expected, possibly due to an unexpected weakening of
the solar wind stream. The geomagnetic activity may be
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels with
some possibility of isolated active periods on 30 April.
The geomagnetic activity is expected to decline during
the next two days thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 May Normal Normal Normal
02 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions are possible
at mid and high latitudes on 30 April (UT day). The HF
conditions are expected to return to normal thereafter.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Apr 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Periods of 15% enhancements with periods of
minor to significant degradations and depressions.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 45
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Apr 52 near predicted monthly values/depressed upto
5%.
01 May 60 near predicted monthly values
02 May 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF
conditions may be observed, especially in the southern Aus/NZ
regions on 30 April. The HF conditions are expected to remain
normal for the next two days thereafter.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: A6.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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