[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 April 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 17 08:17:45 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr:  97/44


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Apr             18 Apr             19 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: Solar wind speed was moderately elevated at 420-480km/sec 
due to a weak coronal hole wind stream. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated around neutral 
(+/-5nT) over the UT day. The Sun has been flare quiet ove rthe 
UT day. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2333 2322
      Darwin               8   1232 2321
      Townsville          11   2233 3322
      Learmonth            8   2222 3---
      Culgoora             8   1233 2222
      Canberra            14   1344 2322
      Hobart              14   1344 2322
      Casey(Ant)          15   3433 2333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 APR : 
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              40   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   1111 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
18 Apr    11    Unsettled 
19 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Isolated active periods observed yesterday. 27 day reccurance 
patterns suggest that active periods are possible for 17April. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Apr    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  45

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Apr    50    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
18 Apr    70    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
19 Apr    70    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: A mild degradation in HF conditions may be experienced 
for southern Aus/NZ region first half of the UT day today. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 397 km/sec  Density:    7.0 p/cc  Temp:    57900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list