[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 September 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 13 08:33:19 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Sep             14 Sep             15 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41             100/48             105/54
COMMENT: Solar wind speed steady at around 600km/sec, not declining 
as fast as expected. Two small to medium sized solar filaments 
have been reported to have erupted from the solar disk (near 
disk centre a geoeffective location) at around 21 UT on 11 Sep. 
A weak halo mass ejection was also reported with this event. 
A weak shock is epxected in the solar wind early on 14 Sep. There 
is a chance for an isolated low level flare from region 456. 
An equatorial coronal hole is visible in SOHO EIT imagery just 
rounding the eastern solar limb. 27 day recurrent patterns suggest 
the wind stream from this hole will reach the Earth 17-18 Sep. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3332 3121
      Darwin              12   3333 3221
      Townsville           9   2332 3121
      Learmonth            9   3322 3111
      Canberra             8   2322 3122
      Hobart               8   2322 3121
      Casey(Ant)          17   4443 3221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 SEP : 
      Townsville           8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           61   (Active)
      Canberra           139   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             132   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15   4523 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Sep    16    active 
15 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mild to moderate geomagnetic activity now expected
14 Sep due to expected arrival of reported erupting filament
associated weak mass ejection.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Sep      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Conditions at high latitudes have not improved as quickly 
as forecast,from recent mild/moderate degradation. However, improving 
conditions are expected for today. A return to mild to moderately 
degraded conditions is expected on 14 Sep due to anticiapted 
arrival of a weak mass ejection associated with two erupting 
solar filamants. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Sep    55

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spreead F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  57

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Sep    55    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
14 Sep    65    near predicted monthly values 
15 Sep    50    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Some southern region sites may experience 10-15% depressed 
MUFs at times today. Northern Aus region MUFs expected to be 
near to 15% above predicted monthly values.A trend of improving 
HF conditions is expected for today, before a return to midly 
degraded conditions 14-15 Sep, southern Aus/NZ region only, due 
the the expected arrival of a weak mass ejection from two recently 
erupting solar filaments. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Sep
Speed: 642 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   172000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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