[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 September 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 SEPTEMBER - 08 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Sep: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Sep             07 Sep             08 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 700 to 600 km/sec over 
the UT day. Further decline expected today. Another coronal hole 
high speed wind stream is expected during interval 8-10 Sep. 
The coronal hole of origin of this wind stream is visible in 
SOHO and SEC SXI imagery east of the solar central meridian. 
The solar disk has been quiet over the past 24 hours. The presumed 
returning solar region 431 appears to have retruned to the solar 
disk as a spotless region, with only faculae so far visible in 
SOHO MDI white light imagery. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Sep: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 05 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   3334 3322
      Darwin              16   2235 3321
      Townsville          12   2234 2323
      Learmonth           12   3233 3321
      Canberra            12   3333 2323
      Hobart              13   3333 3323
      Casey(Ant)          24   4453 3-32
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 SEP : 
      Townsville          12   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra           187   (Severe storm)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             19   3344 3334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Sep     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Sep    11    Unsettled 
08 Sep    18    Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 41 was issued on 5 September 
and is current for interval 8-10 September. Geomagnetic activity 
is then expected to decline before returning to active levels 
after 08 Sep. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected next two days. 
Mild to moderately degraded condtions are expected at mid to 
high latitudes after 08 Sep. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Sep    87

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted to 15% enhanced.
      Some absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  57

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Sep    80    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
07 Sep    80    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
08 Sep    80    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF condtions expected next two days. Another period 
of mildly degraded conditions is expected after 08 Sep. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Sep
Speed: 640 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   230000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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