[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 September 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 2 09:47:37 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Sep: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Sep             03 Sep             04 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             125/78
COMMENT: No significant changes to visible active regions observed. 
Isolated C-class activity is possible from regions 448 and 449. 


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 431 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 3 Sep. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Sep: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 01 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   2441 2332
      Darwin              19   -5-- 2232
      Townsville          11   2341 2232
      Learmonth           13   2342 2332
      Canberra             9   1331 1333
      Hobart              12   1441 2322
      Casey(Ant)          18   3452 22--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 SEP : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            64   (Active)
      Hobart              51   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   2222 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Sep    20    active 
03 Sep    25    active 
04 Sep    20    active 
COMMENT: There was a steady increase in solar wind speed over 
the second half of the UT day under the influence of an equatorial 
coronal hole. Interplanetary magnetic field Bz maintained a slight 
northward bias over the last 2/3 of the UT day, resulting in 
mostly unsettled geoamagnetic conditions with isolated active 
periods observed at high latitudes. A minor shock in the solar 
wind was observed on the ACE satellite platform around 06UT, 
with subsequent briefly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions 
observed at S. Aus/Antarctic stations. Solar wind parameters 
are expected to increase under the coronal hole influence, resulting 
in active conditions over the next few days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
03 Sep      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
04 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed at low latitudes before local 
dawn. Extended periods of disturbance at high latitudes local 
night hours. Possible degraded conditions next few days in association 
with increased geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Sep    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% during local day. 
      Extended periods of disturbance during local night.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Sep    65    near predicted monthly values 
03 Sep    55    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
04 Sep    65    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Moderate absorption observed S. Ocean region around 
local dawn. Extended periods of disturbance local night hours 
at high latitudes. Geomagnetic activity has been limited by persisting 
northward bias in interplanetary magnetic field, but periods 
of HF degradation are possible over the next few days due to 
elevated solar wind speed. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B2.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Aug
Speed: 443 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    81100 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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