[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 October 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 30 10:59:15 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
X10/--    2049UT  probable   all    East Pacific/
                                    North American
 M3/--    0511UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 279/232


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Oct             31 Oct             01 Nov
Activity     High               High               High
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   275/227            265/216            260/210
COMMENT: Solar activity was high today. Solar region 
486 (S17W09) produced an X10 flare at 2040UT and an M3.5
flare at 0511UT. A long duration M1.1 flare was also 
observed which peaked at 0151UT. Four C-class flares 
were also observed today. Today's X10 flare was associated 
with a Type II event and a full halo CME. Shock is expected 
to arrive sometime late on 31 October or early on 01 
November. Culgoora Radiospectograph has reported an 
expected shock speed of 850 km/s. There have been reports 
that calculated this speed upto 1948 km/s. As expected the 
shock due to the CME activity observed on 28 October arrived 
at 0611UT/29 October. A strong sudden impulse (139nT) was 
also observed at the arrival of this shock and Bz suddenly 
went southward upto -50nT (approx). The solar wind speed 
showed a sharp rise from 480 km/s to 900 km/s on the arrival 
of this shock. The solar wind speed is currently approximately 
1000 km/s. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field remained near normal during the first 6 hours 
of the UT day, it then fluctuated between +50nT and -50nT for 
approximately two hours, remained approximately +20 nT for the 
next 10 hours and then went -25nT for the rest of the day. The 
>100MeV and >10 MeV proton events are still continueing. Solar 
activity is expected to remain high during the next 3 days. 
Regions 486 and 488(N08W18) are likely to produce major flares. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Active to Severe Storm Levels 

Estimated Indices 29 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region     139   4587 8776
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville         100   3577 767-
      Learmonth          126   3477 8687
      Culgoora           105   3677 767-
      Canberra           135   4687 768-
      Hobart             159   3687 88-7
      Casey(Ant)         218   5-99 8765
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 OCT : 
      Townsville         120   (Major storm)
      Learmonth          175   (Severe storm)
      Culgoora           179   (Severe storm)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg       120
           Planetary            150                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20   3444 3434     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Oct    70    Major storm first half UT day, then declining. 
31 Oct    30    Unsettled to minor storm. 
01 Nov    70    Active to major storm. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 50 was issued on 28 October 
and is current for interval 29-30 October. The geomagnetic activity 
reached severe storm levels on the arrival of the anticipated 
CME observed on 28 October. This activity is expected to start 
declining in the second half today or early tomorrow. Another 
CME that was associated with today's X10 flare is likely to raise 
the geomagnetic activity to 'Active to major storm' level on 
day 3 of this period. 
A strong (139nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter 
data at 0611UT on 29 Oct. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Oct      Normal-fair    Fair-poor      Poor           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 28 10 2003 1215UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Oct      Poor           Poor           Poor(PCA)
31 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
01 Nov      Poor           Poor           Poor
COMMENT: Polar HF conditions are expected to remain poor during 
the next 3 days. HF conditions are also expected to remain degraded 
on mid latitudes on 30 October and 01 November. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Oct    76

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 50% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  55

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Oct    40    depressed 15 to 40%/near predicted monthly values 
31 Oct    60    near predicted monthly values 
01 Nov    40    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 79 was issued on 28 October 
and is current for interval 29-31 October (SWFs) . HF conditions 
in Aus/NZ region expected to show depressions and degradations 
on 30 October and 1 November. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+08
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C3.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 580 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    97400 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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