[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 October 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 28 10:11:17 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M7.6/2N 26/2140UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
M2.7/2F 0833UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M5.0/SF 0927UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M6.7/SF 1243UT probable lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 257/207
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct
Activity High High High
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 250/200 250/200 250/200
COMMENT: Large solar regions 484 and 486 have remained relatively
unchanged over past 24 hours. Solar region 484 produced the M2
event, as well as the impulsive M7 flare late in the UT day yesterday.
The M2 event was reportedly associated with a mass ejection,
but no type II was reported. LASCO C3 imagery shows a predominately
westward directed mass ejection starting around 09UT. Solar
region 486 produced the M5 and M6 events. Region 486 is located
at S21E18 and is rotating into a good geoeffective location.
Solar region 484 (N03W54) is becoming further westward and this
may reduce geoeffectiveness of any future events. Further M and
X class flare activity is expected from these regions. Also, a solar
region to the north of 486, now numbered 488, emerged around
17UT on 26 Oct, and has recently shown dramatic growth since
00UT on 27 Oct. This region (488) produced an M1.9/1B (N10E09)
at 2151UT, observed between clouds on Culgoora H-alpha imagery,
and appears to have a slow xray decline. This region is also in a
good geoeeffective longitude. No sweep was observed on the Culgoora
Radiospectrograph at the time of the flare. Solar wind speed
was steady at around 450km/sec over past 24 hours. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field was near neutral
the first half of the UT day, becoming mildly northward second
half of UT day. ACE EPAM precursor shock arrival channels are
steady with a high flux. This higher flux may obscure the shock
precursor signature until just before shock arrival. There may
be an upward trend (indicating shock enroute) in the last few
hours of ACE EPAM data. Mass ejections from recent X class flares
are expected to arrive 28 Oct. Solar 10MeV proton event began at
1825UT on 26 Oct and ended at 1950UT on 27 Oct. A glancing blow
from the M2/CME may hit the Earth on 29 Oct. A large coronal hole
currently appears to span the northern solar hemisphere stretching
down towards the solar equator. This hole is expected to induce
mild/moderate activity from around 30-31 Oct. Also, very
speculatively, this hole may be confining the area in which regions
are currently able to develop leading to the recent increase in
activity. SOHO EIT 284 imagery shows emission on the east limb
near the solar equator and another solar region is expected to
rotate onto the solar disk in coming days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Oct : A K
Australian Region 9 2332 1312
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 6 2222 1222
Learmonth 8 2232 2313
Culgoora 5 2222 1212
Canberra 9 3322 1312
Hobart 9 2332 1312
Casey(Ant) 15 3334 -323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 OCT :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 10 2223 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Oct 50 Storm levels
29 Oct 25 Initially at minor storm levels then declining.
30 Oct 16 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 49 was issued on 26 October
and is current for interval 28-29 October. Storm levels expected
on 26 Oct due to recent mass ejections.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : Began at 1825UT 26/10, Ended at 1950UT 27/10
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Poor Poor Poor
29 Oct Fair Fair Fair-Poor
30 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Polar HF conditions impacted by absorption event until
around 16UT on 27 oct. An anticipated geomagnetic storm is expected
to degrad HF conditions in coming days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Oct 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Absorption until 15UT then, near predicted monthly
values over the UT day. Some spread F.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 55
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Oct 55 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
29 Oct 20 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
30 Oct 35 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 77 was issued on 26 October
and is current for interval 28-29 October. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values for most of the local day.
Depressed conditions expected from late UT 28 Oct and 29 Oct
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity from recent mass ejections.
Frequent flares and fadeouts can be expected on daylight HF circuits.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: C2.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 466 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 144000 K Bz: 7 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list