[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 October 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 27 10:12:31 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
+++CORRECETD COPY AUS/NZ REGION IONSOPHERIC COMMENT+++
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.3 0654UT probable all Mid East/Indian
M1.0 1421UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
X1.3 1819UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
M7.2 2139UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct: 298/256
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Oct 28 Oct 29 Oct
Activity High High High
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 200/152 200/152 170/124
COMMENT: The Sun has been very active over the past 24 hours.
Solar regions 484 and 486 each produced an X1 flare over the
past 24 hours. Region 486 (S18E33) produced an X1.2 at 0654UT.
This event was associated with a Type II and IV radio sweep events,
inferring a coronal mass ejection has occurred with this event.
Solar region 484 (N03W41) produced an X1.2 at 1819 UT. This event
was reportedly associated with a Type II radio sweep. This flare
event had almost ended when at 2139UT 484 flared again, this
time an impulsive M7.2 event, with a rapid decline. No sweep
was observed on the Culgoora spectrograph in association with
the M7 flare. The Culgoora H-alpha patrol this morning had a
declining parrallel ribbon flare visible near 484. A 10MeV solar
proton event began at 1825 UT, and is in progress. Further strong
flares are expected from solar regions 484 and 486. Solar wind
speed declined from 600km/sec at the start of the UT day to reach
a day minimum of 350km/sec just before two shock like features
were observed in the solar wind, the first produced a speed jump
of 350-500km/sec at 0749UT, the second a much smaller jump of
around 450 to 500km/sec just after 18 UT. A fluffy solar filament
spaning the solar equator at west 65 degrees began erupting at
0250UT on 26 Oct, visible in Culgoora H-alpha imagery. The filament
had left the solar disk by 0320UT. A shock arrival is expected
second half of UT day on 28 Oct from the 486 X1 flare at 0654UT.
Whilst 484 is in a more geoeffective location (westward) than
486, no mass ejection was confirmable on the LASCO imagery (latest
image 17UT) following its X1 flare, however a mass ejection is
assumed. If so, a shock from this event may also arrive on 28
Oct. In addition, a weaker shock from the filament eruption may
also possibly arrive on 28 Oct, however its extreme westward
location may reduce geoeffetiveness.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 26 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 1223 2243
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 8 1223 2233
Learmonth 10 2123 2243
Culgoora 6 1222 1133
Canberra 10 1223 2243
Hobart 8 1223 1233
Casey(Ant) 26 ---- 3355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 OCT :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14 3322 4433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Oct 12 Unsettled
28 Oct 50 Storm levels
29 Oct 20 active
COMMENT: Storm levels expected on 28 Oct due to recent mass ejections.
A weak (11nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data
at 1909UT on 26 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal Fair-normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 26 10 2003 1825UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
28 Oct Poor Poor Poor
29 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions at high latitudes degraded due to increased
absorption from solar proton event late in the UT day. Low to
mid latitudes were mostly near normal, with some degradation
after local dawn.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Oct 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed 15% briefly after local dawn.
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values,
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed,
later in UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 55
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Oct 70 near predicted monthly values
28 Oct 50 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20% late in UT day
29 Oct 20 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 76 was issued on 25 October
and is current for interval 26-28 October (SWFs) . MUFs are expected
to be near to 10% above normal today. However, frequent flares
and fadeouts can be expected on daylight HF circuits. Depressed
and degraded conditions expected from late 28 Oct and 29 Oct
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity from recent mass ejections.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Oct
Speed: 554 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 148000 K Bz: 10 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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