[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 October 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 24 08:56:34 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.4    0241UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M3.2    0708UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  X5.4    0835UT  probable   all    Mid East/Indian
  M1.0    1622UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  X1.1    2004UT  probable   all    East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.3    2232UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct: 183/136


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Oct             25 Oct             26 Oct
Activity     High               High               High
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            195/147            195/147
COMMENT: Solar region 486 located at S16E70 produced the X5 and 
X1 flares. Despite the regions far west location the X5 flare 
was associated with a front side full halo mass ejection. Event 
parameters give a shock arrival window of 04 to 12UT on 26Oct. 
There are now two shocks enroute to the Earth, another shock 
from an earlier event near region 484 is expected to arrive first 
half of 24 Oct. Region 484 contributed some mid range M class 
events yesterday. Further M and X class activity is expected 
today. Solar wind speed has now declined to 400km/sec, with Bz 
(the north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field) 
maintaining a mildly northward orientation. Quiet before the 
storm. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 23 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   4232 1112
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville          13   4243 222-
      Learmonth            8   4232 1102
      Culgoora             9   4232 1112
      Canberra             9   4-32 1012
      Hobart               6   3232 1001
      Casey(Ant)          15   4343 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 OCT : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            16   (Quiet)
      Canberra            30   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             33   4565 4432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Oct    40    Minor to major storm storm 
25 Oct    30    Active to Minor storm 
26 Oct    60    Storm levels 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 48 was issued on 22 October 
and is current for interval 24-25 October. Two sudden storm 
commencements are expected, the first arriving first half of 
UT day 24 Oct, the second arriving first half UT day on 26 
Oct. Storm conditions expected to follow impulses, if Bz 
swings strongly southward following shock arrival. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Oct      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event. However, 10Mev Proton flux enhancement.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Oct      Fair           Fair-Poor      Poor
25 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
26 Oct      Poor           Poor           Poor
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions at mid to high latitudes expected 
next three days. Transpolar HF circuits may also experience increased 
absorption due to 10MeV proton enhancement. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Oct    65

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  55

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Oct    70    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10-30% 
25 Oct    10    20 to 40% below predicted monthly values 
26 Oct    25    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 74 was issued on 22 October 
and is current for interval 24-25 October. MUFs expected to initially 
be near to slightly above predicted monthly values. A coronal 
mass ejection is expected to arrive first half of the UT day 
on 24 Oct with storm conditions anticipated to follow. Another 
mass ejection is expected on 26 Oct. Strongly depressed and degraded 
conditions are expected next few days in Aus/NZ region if strong 
geomagnetic activity follows mass ejection arrival. Frequent 
flares and shortwave fadeouts are expected today. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: C4.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 634 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    62100 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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