[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 October 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 22 08:55:42 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **RED**
+++ CORRECTED COPY SOLAR SUMMARY  +++
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    0827UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.2    2121UT  Confirmed  lower  East Pacific/
			            North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 152/107

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Oct             23 Oct             24 Oct
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            155/109            160/114
COMMENT: Solar region 484 now located at (N05E26) continues to 
grow (at a slower rate) and remains magnetically very complex. 
This region is nearing the centre of the solar disk. If this 
region produces a significant solar flare over the next few days 
its will quite likely be very geoeffective. The M1 event at around 
2120UT had an unusual broad flat profile, and could not be optically 
correlated (not from 484). Some surging was visible on the south-east 
limb around south 14 degress in Culgoora H-alpha imagery. This 
suggests that another active solar region will rotate onto the 
solar disk at around south 14 degrees. US SOHO EIT imagery shows 
a bright "plume" at this latitude on the eastern solar limb. 
Solar flare activity is expected to be moderate, due to both 
484 and possibly this new region. Region 484 is still capable 
of producing a major flare. The strong solar radio noise storm 
remains in progress on the Culgoora Radiospectrograph. US ACE 
solar wind speed shows steady and fast at 700km/sec over the 
UT day. Elevated wind speed due to solar coronal hole. The 
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field was 
mildly southward (5nT) for most of the UT day. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 21 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      26   4343 5444
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville          24   4343 5433
      Learmonth           33   4333 6-54
      Culgoora            19   3333 52--
      Canberra            24   3343 5-43
      Hobart              31   3344 6444
      Casey(Ant)          27   4444 4444
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 OCT : 
      Townsville          13   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Culgoora            76   (Active)
      Canberra            95   (Minor storm)
      Hobart             162   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        28
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             30   3455 4445     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Oct    20    Active, minor storm periods possible. 
23 Oct    20    Active, minor storm periods possible. 
24 Oct    13    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 47 was issued on 18 October 
and is current for interval 21-22 October. An increase in activity 
is expected for interval 22-23 Oct due coronal hole high speed 
wind stream. Disturbance forecast interval increased to cover 
23 Oct due to slow decline in solar wind speed from coronal hole 
and possible weak coronal mass ejection impact on 22/23. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Oct      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event. (Chance for proton flare from 484).

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Oct      Normal         Fair           Poor-fair     
23 Oct      Normal         Fair           Poor-fair     
24 Oct      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected at mid to high latitudes 
next two days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Oct    62

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Disturbed conditions. Macquire Island
      MUFs enhanced 30% early in UT day. Depressed
      30% after 20UT. Antartic mainland region 
      MUFs depressed 15-20% with spread F observed,
      and increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  55

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Oct    30    depressed 10 to 20% (southern Aus/NZ region)
22 Oct    60    near predicted monthly values (northern Aus region)
23 Oct    40    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
24 Oct    45    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 70 was issued on 19 October 
and is current for interval 20-22 October (SWFs) . Depressed 
conditions expected for southern Aus/NZ region today. Northern 
region MUFs likely to remain near predicted monthly values (T=60). 
Shortwave fadeouts likely on daylight HF circuits, due to large 
active solar region on solar disk, and another probable active 
solar region rotating onto solar disk. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B6.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 592 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:   213000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list