[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 October 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 14 09:19:30 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar wind speed was flat at around 300km/sec during
the first half of the UT day. Wind speed increased to 550km/sec
during the second half of the UT day, indicating the Earth has
entered the high speed wind stream from a coronal hole. This
hole is broad and elevated wind speed conditions are expected
to persist until 19 Oct. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) became mildly southward after entering this
wind stream. The Sun was flare quiet over past 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 2222 3333
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 10 2222 3333
Learmonth 9 2222 2333
Culgoora 9 2222 3234
Canberra 8 1222 3234
Hobart 11 1223 3333
Casey(Ant) 9 2322 2233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 OCT :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 1213 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
15 Oct 18 active
16 Oct 16 active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 46 was issued on 12 October
and is current for interval 14-16 October. Active periods expected
next few day with chance for isolated minor storm periods due
to coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
15 Oct Normal Fair Fair-Poor
16 Oct Normal Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: The Earth has entered a coronal hole high speed wind
stream. Mild to moderately degraded HF conditions expected next
few days at mid to high latitudes only.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Oct 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 55
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Oct 50 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
15 Oct 40 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
16 Oct 40 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 67 was issued on 12 October
and is current for interval 15-16 October. The Earth has entered
the anticipated coronal hole high speed wind stream overnight.
Mild to moderately depressed conditions are expected for southern
Aus/NZ region over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 25500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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