[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 October 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct:  98/45


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Oct             14 Oct             15 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has continued to decline further ending 
the day at 300km/sec. A "horseshoe" shaped coronal hole is visible 
in US SOHO EIT 195 imagery, the front of this hole now just reaching 
solar central meridian. The recurrent period of associated activity 
from this hole is expected 14-19 Oct. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1111 1211
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville           3   1110 1222
      Learmonth            3   1110 1210
      Culgoora             2   1110 1111
      Canberra             3   1110 1211
      Hobart               3   1111 1110
      Casey(Ant)           7   2-32 21--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   2121 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Oct     7    Quiet 
14 Oct    12    Unsettled 
15 Oct    18    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 46 was issued on 12 October 
and is current for interval 14-16 October. No mild increase in 
activity has been observed. The next moderate recurrent activity 
is expected to begin on 14 Oct, due to the coronal hole now approaching 
solar central meridian. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Solarw ind speed has remained low. Good Hf conditions 
expected for today. A degraded interval is expected to begin 
14/15 Oct, due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Oct    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-35%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  55

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Oct    70    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
14 Oct    65    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Oct    45    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 67 was issued on 12 October 
and is current for interval 15-16 October. Higher than normal 
MUFs expected today. A mild to moderate degradation/depression 
period is expected to begin 14/15 Oct due to anticipated geomagnetic 
activity induced by a coronal hole high spped wind stream. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 396 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:   104000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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