[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 October 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 9 09:18:17 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Oct: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Oct             10 Oct             11 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             105/54             105/54
COMMENT: Isolated low level M class flare possible from region 
471. Solar wind speed steady at 550-600km/sec. Solar wind speed 
expected to decline over next couple of days. Another small-medium 
coronal hole is nearing solar central meridian, visible in SOHO 
EIT imagery. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2211 1122
      Darwin               0   0100 0000
      Townsville           4   1212 1123
      Learmonth            4   2211 1123
      Canberra             5   2221 1123
      Hobart               5   2221 1122
      Casey(Ant)          15   3--3 ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra           100   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              71   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13   4223 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Oct    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled conditions expected. Next 27 day 
recurrent period of activity expected to begin 13-14 Oct. Some 
mild elevation in activity may be experienced on 11 Oct due to 
coronal hole now near centre of solar disk. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Good conditions expected until around 13 Oct. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Oct    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  54

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Oct    90    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
10 Oct    90    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
11 Oct    90    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Higher than normal MUFs expected. Mild degradation possible 
after 13 Oct southern Aus/NZ region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Oct
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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