[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 October 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Oct: 120/72


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Oct             05 Oct             06 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66
COMMENT: Possibility of isolated C to M-class flares from active 
region 471. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Oct: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 03 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   3222 2222
      Darwin               0   1000 0000
      Townsville           9   3-22 2322
      Learmonth           11   3322 2333
      Canberra            12   3-22 3333
      Hobart              10   3-21 2333
      Casey(Ant)          12   ---3 32--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              9   2322 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
05 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has remained steady at a slightly elevated 
velocity around 470 km/s. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly 
quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods observed at high 
latitudes. Expect similar conditions for the next two days, with 
a possible increase in activity on day three due to a weak coronal 
hole wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Expect normal to enhanced HF propagation conditions 
over the next two days. Possible isolated periods of disturbance 
at high latitudes on days two and three. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Oct    92

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  54

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Oct    95    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
05 Oct    95    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
06 Oct    90    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild overnight spread-F conditions observed S. Aus/NZ 
regions. Expect normal to enhanced ionospheric propagation conditions 
for the next few days. Isolated periods of disturbance possible 
at high latitudes after Oct-4. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Oct
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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