[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 30 10:21:01 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 166/120
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Nov 01 Dec 02 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 145/99 130/84
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. A few low
C-class flares were observed - most from region 508(S19W58).
Regions 507(N07W70) and 510(S23W03) also produced low C-class
flares. The solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from
420 km/s to 350 km/s (approx) during the first half of the UT
day today and then fluctuated between 350 and 400 km/s (approx)
during the rest of the day. This seems to have been caused by
the effect of the transequatorial coronal hole that is in a
geoeffective position now. The effect of this coronal hole is
expected to continue for approximately two more days. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) remained mildly negative almost continuously from 0500
to 1200UT today. Bz remained mildly positive for most part
of the rest of the UT day. Region 507 is still the largest
region on the disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 2121 2123
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 5 2121 2123
Learmonth 4 2122 1113
Culgoora 3 1121 1022
Canberra 4 1121 2023
Hobart 4 2121 2012
Casey(Ant) 10 3--2 2323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 NOV :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 10 2223 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Nov 13 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Active periods possible.
01 Dec 13 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Active periods possible.
02 Dec 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible on high latitudes.
COMMENT: The effect of the transequatorial coronal hole,
that has taken a geoeffective position, seems to have started
to strengthen the solar wind stream. This effect is expected
to continue on 30 November and 01 December. This may result
in a slight rise in geomagnetic activity on these days.
Unsettled periods may be observed on most locations during
this period with possibility of active periods- especially
at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on low and mid latitudes during the next two days. Minor to
mild depressions and degradations are possible at high
latitudes during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Nov 100
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day with short periods
of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 52
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Nov 105 near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 5%.
01 Dec 105 near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 5%.
02 Dec 108 near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 10%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in the Australian/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B6.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 421 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 71500 K
Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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