[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 27 10:08:47 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 171/125
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Nov 28 Nov 29 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. Only a few
low C-level and a B9.4 flare were recorded. Today's largest
flare has been a C1.7 at 1618UT from region 508(S18W19). The
solar wind speed gradually decreased from 560 to 500 km/s
(approx) by 1600UT, but again showed fluctuations between 500
and 550 km/s (approx) in the later hours. The coronal hole
activity, that has caused this elevation in the solar wind
speed, is declining now. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained mildly positive
almost the whole day. Region 507(N08W31) is still the largest
region on the disk. Both the regions 507 and 508 hold potential
for isolated M-class flares. A new region 513 was numbered
today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 2212 2212
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 5 1113 2212
Learmonth 6 2212 2223
Culgoora 4 1111 2213
Canberra 7 2221 3212
Hobart 7 2221 3212
Casey(Ant) 11 3--- 2322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 NOV :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 54 (Unsettled)
Hobart 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13 3333 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Nov 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isloated active periods
possible at high latitudes.
28 Nov 8 Quiet to unsettled
29 Nov 8 Quiet
COMMENT: Due to a continued weakening of the solar wind
stream with the decline of coronal hole activity, the
geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly at quiet
to unsettled levels on most locations with some possibility
of isolated active periods at high latitudes on 27 November.
The geomagnetic activity is expected to decline further on
the following two days thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on all locations during the next three days. However, there
is some possiblity of isolated minor depressions and degradations
at high latitudes on 27 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Nov 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values for most of the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 52
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Nov 105 05 to 20% above predicted monthly values
28 Nov 108 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
29 Nov 110 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain normal in
the Australian/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B6.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 596 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 138000 K
Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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