[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 15 10:26:21 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:** RED ** ION: * YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: No significant flare activity was observed today. Active
region 501 has decreased in size since its last rotation, but
still retains the potential for strong flare activity. Solar
wind parameters remain elevated under the influence of the present
geoeffective coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: Unsettled to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 14 Nov : A K
Australian Region 26 3345 5333
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 26 3345 5333
Learmonth 21 3334 5333
Culgoora 20 3344 4333
Canberra 27 3445 5334
Hobart 32 3455 5344
Casey(Ant) 26 5-54 3233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 NOV :
Townsville 9 (Quiet)
Learmonth 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Culgoora 106 (Major storm)
Canberra 132 (Severe storm)
Hobart 164 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 36
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 42 3545 6554
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Nov 30 Active to Minor storm
16 Nov 30 Active to Minor storm
17 Nov 20 active
COMMENT: Unsettled to minor storm geomagnetic conditions were
observed over the UT day in response to elevated solar wind parameters.
Solar wind speed was steady at about 650 km/s. The north-south
component of the interplaneatry magnetic field maintained a slight
southward bias, with persistent polarity fluctuations of about
+/- 5nT. Isolated major storm periods were observed at high latitudes.
The present large coronal hole is expected to remain geoeffective
for several more days. There may be a decline in geomagnetic
activity after Nov 16.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Poor Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
16 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
17 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Persistent, severe depressions observed at low to mid
latitudes. Extended periods of degradation observed at high latitudes.
Expect continued HF communications degradation for the next two
days, under the influence of a coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Nov -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 10 to 20% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 45% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Extended periods of degradation over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 52
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Nov 30 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
16 Nov 35 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
17 Nov 45 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 86 was issued on 14 November
and is current for interval 14-15 November. Persistent and occasionally
intense sporadic-E conditions observed at all latitudes. Persistent,
severe ionospheric depressions observed at low to mid latitudes.
Mid latitudes showed signs of recovery overnight, with further
depressions around local dawn. Equatorial/Northern Aus HF conditions
should be slightly better today. High latitudes can expect continuing
degraded HF conditions due to coronal hole induced geomagnetic
activity. Increased absorption observed around local mid-day
in Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B3.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 677 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 245000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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