[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 13 10:34:43 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:** RED ** ION: * YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov
Activity Low Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 130/84 145/99
COMMENT: Three minor C-class flares were observed today. There
were no reported Type II radio sweeps. The dominant feature on
the solar disk is a large coronal hole producing elevated solar
wind speeds. Recently observed brightening behind the east solar
limb indicates that returning active region 484 remains active
and may again produce intense flares during its next rotation.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 484 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 13 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 12 Nov : A K
Australian Region 20 3334 3443
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 16 3334 3333
Learmonth 21 3334 4443
Culgoora 16 3334 3333
Canberra 18 3334 3343
Hobart 24 3435 3443
Casey(Ant) 32 5-54 3444
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 NOV :
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 50 (Unsettled)
Culgoora 100 (Minor storm)
Canberra 167 (Severe storm)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 39
Planetary 51 5656 5554
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Nov 30 Active to Minor storm
14 Nov 25 active
15 Nov 25 active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 54 was issued on 7 November
and is current for interval 10-13 November. Unsettled to active
geomagnetic conditions were observed over the UT day in response
to elevated solar wind parameters. The causitive solar feature
is a large coronal hole which is expected to remain geoeffective
for several more days. There is a minor possibility of a solar
wind shock late 13 Nov to early 14 Nov following an M1 level
flare observed on 12 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
14 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
15 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Extended period of degraded HF communications quality
for mid to high latitudes expected due to coronal hole wind stream.
Low latitude HF communication expected to remain normal.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Nov 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night and after
local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 52
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Nov 15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
14 Nov 20 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
15 Nov 20 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 84 was issued on 7 November
and is current for interval 11-13 November. Depressed MUFs again
observed since local dawn this morning for southern Aus/NZ region.
Northern Aus region MUFS mostly near normal or only mildly depressed.
Depression associated with geomagnetic activity induced by coronal
hole high speed wind stream. Extended interval of lower than
normal MUFs for southern Aus/NZ region probable over next few
days. Depressed MUF conditions may ease slightly after 15 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 732 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 363000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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