[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 10 09:40:43 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: Yesterdays discontinuity feature in the solar wind was
indicating the Earth had entered the anticipated coronal hole
wind stream (one day earlier than expected). This wind stream
again has a mild southward magnetic orientation and is likely
to produce elevated wind speed conditions for an extended period.
The above average wind speed and southward IMF will lead to a
general increase in geomagnetic activity for the coming week.
No flares observed last 24 hours. Learmonth solar observatory
reported that a 29 degree long solar filament slowly faded off the
solar disk by 08 Nov. This filament stretched across solar central
meridian S09E06 to S21W20. Chance for a weak mass ejection arrival
10Nov from this filament.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 09 Nov : A K
Australian Region 22 3234 5343
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 20 3234 5333
Learmonth 25 3234 5353
Culgoora 19 2234 5333
Canberra 21 3334 5333
Hobart 21 3334 5333
Casey(Ant) 28 --54 4343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 NOV :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 16 (Quiet)
Culgoora 57 (Unsettled)
Canberra 84 (Minor storm)
Hobart 84 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 1113 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Nov 30 Active to Minor storm
11 Nov 30 Active to Minor storm
12 Nov 30 Active to Minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 54 was issued on 7 November
and is current for interval 10-13 November. The Earth has entered
the anticiapted coronal hole wind stream. Extended period of
activity now expected (possibly up to 18 Nov).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
11 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
12 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
COMMENT: Extended period of degraded HF communications quality
for mid to high latitudes now expected. Low latitude communication
expected to remain normal.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Nov 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values first half UT day.
Blanketing sporadic E observed at Macquarie Island.
Depressed 15% late in UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 52
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Nov 60 near predicted monthly values (Northern Aus)
10 Nov 20 depressed 10 to 20% (southern Aus/NZ)
11 Nov 25/60 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
12 Nov 25/60 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 85 was issued on 9 November
and is current for interval 10-11 November. Depressed MUFs observed
since local dawn this morning for southern Aus/NZ region. Northern
Aus region MUFS mostly near normal or only mildly depressed.
Depression associated with geomagnetic activity induced by coronal
hole high speed wind stream. Extended interval of lower than
normal MUFs for southern Aus/NZ region probable over next few
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 94600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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