[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 November 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 8 09:14:31 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov:  91/36


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Nov             09 Nov             10 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              95/41
COMMENT: Solar wind speed rapidly declined after yesterdays hock 
arrival and is now at 450 km/sec. The Sun is now expected to 
be very quiet and is almost spotless. A large coronal hole is 
visible in teh Suns eastern solar hemisphere. Recurrence suggests 
that elevated solar wnd speeds can be expected from 10 Nov, perhaps 
extended to 18 Nov. This wind stream had a mildly southward magnetic 
orientation on its last roatation, which increased its geoeffectiveness. 
Speculatively, US SEC GOES xray flux plot shows some rounded 
B flare humps and these could be indicating that 486 is still 
active behind the western solar limb. The recent proton event
ended at 0925UT 07 Nov.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   3322 1112
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville           6   3222 1112
      Learmonth            6   3212 1212
      Culgoora             7   3312 1111
      Canberra             7   3322 1112
      Hobart               7   3322 1112
      Casey(Ant)          16   5--3 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 NOV : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Culgoora            70   (Active)
      Canberra           124   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             146   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14   2222 3354     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Nov     8    Quiet 
09 Nov    13    Quiet to unsettled 
10 Nov    20    Active to minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 54 was issued on 7 November 
and is current for interval 10-13 November. Not much activity 
followed recent shock arrival. Next two days expected to be relatively 
quiet. The Earth is expected to enter a high speed wind stream 
10 Nov. This may again produce an extended period of geomagnetic 
activity, possibly up to 18 Nov. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : Began at 2225UT 04/11, Ended at 0925UT 07/11
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to continue to improve today, 
However, degraded conditions are expected after 10 Nov due to 
coronal hole high speed wind stream induced activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Nov    94

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced early in UT day, then.
      near predicted monthly values.
      Some Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  52

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Nov    80    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
09 Nov    70    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
10 Nov    70    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 83 was issued on 7 November 
and is current for interval 11-13 November. Ionosphere had a 
positive response to recent glancing blow from west limb mass 
ejection. Normal HF conditions expected next two days. Moderately 
depressed/degraded conditions expected for southern Aus/NZ after 
10 Nov due to anticipated activity from a solar coronal hole. 
Northern Aus region MUFs expected to remain near normal. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.7E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 487 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    76700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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