[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 November 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 6 10:48:01 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M5/SF    1052UT  possible   lower  European
 M1/SF    0237UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Nov             07 Nov             08 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             105/54             100/48
COMMENT: Its all over for a while. Solar activity is expected 
to rapidly decline today as we farewell very flare active 486 
rotating off disk over the south-western solar limb. There 
is a chance for a further isolated flare from behind the limb 
from 486 today. GOES background xray flux levels have already 
dropped to around B7. Solar region 484 is due back around 13 
Nov, regions 486 and 488 around 18 Nov, assuming they dont decay 
on the solar backside transit. Solar wind speed had a declining 
trend over past 24 hours. A glancing blow shock arrival is possible 
next 24 hours from the extreme westlimb superflare (reported as 
as sauturated X17, now estimated as an X28 by US SEC) from departing 
486. ACE EPAM low energy ion shock arrival precursor channels 
still have a high flux from recent activity, but may be showing 
a weak/slow upward trend late in the UT day, possibly hinting 
that a shock is enroute. The proton event associated with this 
westlimb flare remains in progress and is expected to end today. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 05 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2111 1132
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville           5   2111 1132
      Learmonth            3   2110 1123
      Culgoora             4   2110 0132
      Canberra             5   2211 0132
      Hobart               4   2221 0122
      Casey(Ant)          14   4--- 2233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 NOV : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            8   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            30   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              42   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             31   3257 3343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Nov    20    Active to minor storm, due to chance arrival 
                of mass ejection from on limb major flare. 
07 Nov    10    Unsettled 
08 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Chance arrival from flare/CME which was observed on 
western solar limb. Geomagnetic activity is expected to have 
an over all declining profile of activity over the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 04 11 2003 2225UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Poor-Fair(PCA easing)
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to generally improve in coming 
days. A mild to moderate degradation may be experienced today 
if a glancing blow from a west limb flare/CME arrives. The Proton 
event effecting polar HF communications is expected to end today. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Nov    99

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  52

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Nov    80    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
07 Nov    50    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
08 Nov    90    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Higher than normal MUFs expecte today. There is a chance 
for briefly depressed MUFs tomorrow if a glancing blow from a 
recent mass ejection arrives sometime today. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 704 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:   463000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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