[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 November 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 4 10:47:10 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X3/2F    0955UT  probable   all    Mid East/Indian
 X2/2B    0130UT  probable   all    E. Asia/Aust.
 M3/SF    1532UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 167/121

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Nov             05 Nov             06 Nov
Activity     High             Moderate to low      Low
Fadeouts     Probable           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             130/84             120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was high today. Region 488(N08W82)
produced two X-flares- an X2.7 at 0130UT and an X3.9 at 
0955UT. Both these flares had associated Type II radio 
sweeps and partial halo CMEs with them. Neither of these 
CMEs is expected to have any significant geoeffectiveness. 
Region 486 (S17W75) produced an M3.9 flare at 1532UT. This 
event could not be related to any other activity. The 
>10MeV proton event, that started at 1740UT/02 November, 
is still in progress. The >100MeV proton event, that started 
at 1740UT/02 November, has ended at 1720UT/03 November. The 
PCA event is continuing. The solar wind speed gradually 
decreased from 600 km/s to 520 km/s (approx) by the time of 
this report today. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field (BZ) showed small fluctuations 
(between +5nT and -5nT approx.) throughout the UT day- mostly 
remaining slightly northwards. Regions 488 is due to pass the 
limb and go to the back side of the disk in the late hours 
tomorrow. Region 486 is due to pass the limb in the early 
hours on 05 November. These regions still maintain their large 
sizes and magnetic complexities. The solar activity may, 
therefore, be expected to remain at high levels on 04 November 
and then significantly decerase on 05 and 06 November as 
regions 486 and 488 disappear behind the limb. Both these 
regions hold strong potential for major events. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Mostly quiet to 
unsettled. 

Estimated Indices 03 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   3322 2223
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville           8   3321 2223
      Learmonth            8   3222 2222
      Culgoora             5   2312 1113
      Canberra             7   2322 1223
      Hobart               8   3322 1223
      Casey(Ant)          17   4--3 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 NOV : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              72   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             18   3433 3443     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Nov    95    Quiet to severe storm. 
05 Nov    35    Minor to major storm, declining to active to 
                unsettled. 
06 Nov    12    Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 53 was issued on 3 November 
and is current for interval 4-5 November. The geomagnetic 
activity further decreased today and is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels for the first few hours 
on 04 November. However, the CMEs observed on 01 and 02 November, 
are expected to arrive around mid-day on 04 November. This may 
again strengthen the solar wind stream and raise the geomagnetic 
activity to storm levels on 04 and 05 November. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 02 11 2003 1120UT and is 
in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Nov      Normal-poor    Normal-poor    Poor          
05 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Poor-fair     
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to show mild to strong 
depressions and degradations on 04 and 05 November on most 
locations. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 Nov    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to deppressed upto 20%
      during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  52

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Nov    15    near monthly predicted values/ depressed upto 
                25% 
05 Nov    30    depressed 05 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
06 Nov    80    05 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 83 was issued on 3 
November and is current for interval 3-5 November. HF 
conditions in Aus/NZ region are expected to show mild to 
strong depressions and degradations on 04 and 05 November. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: C1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 564 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    57200 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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