[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 May 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May: 118/70


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 May             24 May             25 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             130/84             135/89




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 22 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      18   4333 4333
      Darwin              17   4332 4333
      Townsville          17   3342 4333
      Learmonth           22   5332 5233
      Canberra            18   4333 4334
      Hobart              16   3333 4333
      Casey(Ant)          21   4333 44--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 MAY : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            44   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              86   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             27                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             20   3422 3445     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 May    16    Unsettled to active 
24 May    12    Unsettled 
25 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: The Earth is presently under the influence of a high 
speed solar wind stream from an equatorial coronal hole. Solar 
wind speeds have declined from yesterday resulting in mostly 
unsettled to active levels over the Australian region. Further 
active levels are possible for 23 May. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
24 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels may result 
in slight depressions at times during 23 May. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 May   101

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      otherwise enhanced greater than 30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  72

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 May    80    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
24 May    90    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
25 May    90    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels may result 
in slight depressions at times during 23 May. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: 435 km/sec  Density:    5.5 p/cc  Temp:    94100 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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