[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 May 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May: 109/59


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 May             20 May             21 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             130/84




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 18 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1211 1233
      Darwin               6   1221 1233
      Townsville           7   2111 1333
      Learmonth            6   1111 1333
      Canberra             4   1110 1233
      Hobart               3   1110 1222
      Casey(Ant)          11   2322 2243
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 MAY : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart               3   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   No data     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 May    16    active 
20 May    14    Unsettled to Active 
21 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind declined to near background levels before 
a step increase in wind speed and magnetic flux angle occurred 
at around 15UT, indicating a solar sector boundary crossing. 
Wind speed commenced an increasing trend after about 20UT which 
may be due to a favourably positioned small coronal hole. This 
may result in active periods today. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Isolated mild overnight depressions observed at mid 
latitudes. Extended periods of spread-F conditions observed in 
Antarctic regions. Expect similar conditons today with possible 
disturbances at high latitudes in association with increased 
geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 May    63

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15-20% during local night/dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced 10-30% above predicted monthly values 
      with widespread spread-F conditions observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  72

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 May    60    Near predicted monthly values 
20 May    70    Near predicted monthly values 
21 May    80    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Possible mild depressions during local night hours and 
after local dawn at mid latitudes. Expect local disturbances 
today S Aus/Antarctic regions in association with increased geomagnetic 
activity. These effects are due to a small favourably positioned 
coronal hole and should not persist for more than 1-2 days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 536 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    83700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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