[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 May 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 14 09:17:09 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 14 MAY - 16 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 May: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 May 15 May 16 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased over UT day, now at 750km/sec.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field,
Bz, fluctuated southward 5nT over the past 24 hours. A sequence
of coronal hole structures now span the solar disk, visible in
SOHO EIT284 imagery. Solar wind speed is expected to reduce in
coming days, but remain moderately elevated for an extended period,
due to smaller coronal hole structures in eastern solar hemisphere.
Solar region 338 appears to have returned to the solar disk as
a spotless region. This area appears bright in EIT195 imagery,
and will be watched for any development. However, at this stage,
nothing obvious is visible in Culgoora H-alpha imagery in this
area. Also, some north-east limb brightness (visible in EIT195)
may be behind this area possibly indicating the return of old
region 336, which is due back to the solar disk on 14 May. Region
336 did not produce significant flare activity in its previous
disk transit.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 May: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 13 May : A K
Australian Region 16 3334 3333
Darwin 16 3334 3333
Townsville 16 3334 3334
Learmonth 17 2334 4334
Canberra 19 3335 3333
Hobart 19 3335 3333
Casey(Ant) 27 4--- ----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 MAY :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 52 (Unsettled)
Canberra 117 (Major storm)
Hobart 114 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18 3443 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 May 20 Unsettled to active, with minor storm periods
possible.
15 May 16 Unsettled to active
16 May 16 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 12 May and
is current for interval 13-15 May. Recurrence and coronal hole
imagery suggests that an extended period unsettled to active
conditions can be expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
15 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
16 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected next three days at mid
to high latitudes. Increasing chance for shortwave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 May 53
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed 15%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 May 55 depressed 10 to 15% (southern region)
14 May 70 near predicted monthly values (northern region)
15 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
16 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on 11 May
and is current for interval 12-14 May. Lower than normal MUFs
again expected for southern Aus/NZ region. Northern Aus region
MUFs again expected to be near normal. In general southern region
MUFs are expected to improve after today. However, an extended
period of lower than normal MUFs after local dawn and degraded
local night conditions may be experienced by southern Aus/NZ
HF communicators. Chance for shortwave fadeouts.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: A6.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 May
Speed: 672 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 263000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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