[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 May 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 10 08:34:22 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: **RED**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 May 11 May 12 May
Activity Low Low Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 0455UT,
with solar wind jumping from 776 to 850km/sec. The origin of
this shock is not clear. Solar wind speed showed a declining
trend post shock. However, solar wind speed remains elevated
and is now expected to be sustained due to expected wind from
second arm of "U" shaped coronal hole. Solar activity is expected
to remain at low levels for the next two days. An increase in
activity may occur after 11 May due to the possibility of the
return of a previously flaring solar region 338 to the north east
solar limb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 09 May : A K
Australian Region 23 3454 4322
Darwin 23 3454 4322
Townsville 28 3464 4323
Learmonth 26 3554 4322
Canberra 23 3454 4322
Hobart 26 3454 5322
Casey(Ant) 26 4544 33--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 MAY :
Townsville 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 96 (Minor storm)
Canberra 167 (Severe storm)
Hobart 181 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 36
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A K
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 30 5545 4453
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 May 13 Unsettled
11 May 20 Unsettled to active, with minor storm periods
possible.
12 May 22 Unsettled to active, with minor storm periods
possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 9 May and is
current for interval 10-12 May. An unexpected sudden impulse
was observed at 0519UT (27nT) in the Australian region. Minor
storm periods followed impulse. Geomagnetic activity may briefly
decline today, before a return to active to minor storm levels
due to second arm of coronal hole high speed wind stream. Recurrence
suggests that unsettled to active conditions may extend until
22 May, due to frequency of croronal holes on the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
12 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Unexpected degraded conditions observed at mid to high
latitudes overnight. Depressed MUFs may follow after local dawn.
HF conditions may briefly improve later today, before returning
to degraded, due to anticipated activity induced by second arm
of coronal hole wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 May 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
15% depressed.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
15% depressed to near normal.
Spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 May 35 depressed 10 to 20% (Southern Aus region)
10 May 70 near predicted monthly values (Northern Aus region)
11 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
12 May 60 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 9 May
and is current for interval 10 May only. Southern Aus/NZ region
MUFs again depressed 15% yesterday. Degraded HF conditions local
night due to unexpected geomagnetic activity following shock/impulse
arrival. Further depressions probable southern region after local
dawn this morning. Northern Aus region MUFs again appear unaffected.
HF conditions may briefly improve later today, before returning
degraded due to second arm of coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+09 (high)
X-ray background: B5.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May
Speed: 771 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 320000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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