[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 May 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 8 09:12:13 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 May             09 May             10 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48              95/41
COMMENT: Solar wind speed elevated at 700km/sec due to high speed 
wind stream from the first arm of a "U" shaped coronal hole, 
now centred on the solar disk. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field was southward 5nT over the UT day. 
Solar wind speed should start to decline over next 24 hours. 
Wind speed is then expected to further decline before increasing 
again around 11 May as the Earth enters the wind stream from 
the second arm of the "U". Solar activity may decline over coming 
days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 07 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      29   3455 4433
      Darwin              26   3455 3332
      Townsville          24   3355 3332
      Learmonth           33   --55 4433
      Canberra            29   3455 4432
      Hobart              31   4455 4432
      Casey(Ant)          25   4444 43-4
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 MAY : 
      Townsville          25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth           76   (Active)
      Canberra           151   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             185   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        32
           Planetary             37                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             23   4334 5444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 May    20    Unsettled to active, with minor storm periods possible. 
09 May    13    Unsettled to active 
10 May    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Active conditions with minor storm periods forecast 
extended to 08 May due to sustained elevated solar wind speed 
from solar coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity is expected to 
decline after 08 May, then increase again to active levels after 
11 May. This secondary period of active conditions may be lengthy. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal         Fair-Normal    Fair
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Further degraded conditions again expected at mid to 
high latitudes 8 May due to coronal hole high speed wind stream. 
Conditions are then expected to improve, before returning to 
degraded conditions after 11 May. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 May    78

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Spread F observed local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  72

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 May    40    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values (South Aus)
08 May    80    near to 15% above predicted monthly values (North Aus)
09 May    70    Near predicted monthly values 
10 May    75    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 33 was issued on 7 May 
and is current for interval 8 May only. Southern Aus/NZ region 
MUFs depressed 15% after local dawn this morning. Northern Aus 
region MUFs appear unaffected at this stage. Some spread F was 
observed on southern Aus region station ionograms during local 
night hours last night, indicating degraded HF conditions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B5.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 695 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:   256000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 



More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list